Ron Paul, Cell Phones and Polling

In the Agora provides some evidence that traditional polling leaves out younger voters (who are likely Paul supporters):

This Pew Research Center survey is perhaps the most comprehensive to date in working to determine what impact this has on polling data. The Pew survey found that cell-phone-only Americans are disproportionately younger, less affluent, less likely to be married or to own their home, and more liberal on many political questions. Yet “the absence of this group from traditional telephone surveys has only a minimal impact on the results.”

Notably, the Pew survey was conducted over a year ago, and the percentage of those now cell-phone-only has nearly doubled in that time. Perhaps a new study using the same techniques would reveal a different conclusion. Either way, though, “minimal impact” is in fact significant in the context of primary polling, where even a couple percentage points can make or break a candidate’s future.

Although Rep. Ron Paul is essentially libertarian, many of his positions - opposition to the Iraq war, greater civil liberties, etc. - would traditionally be defined as “liberal” in the lexicon of some members of the press. And voters (particularly younger ones) who align with those positions would seem to be the very people Ron Paul counts among his most ardent supporters.

7 Responses to “Ron Paul, Cell Phones and Polling”

  1. Mark Says:

    It is an interesting idea, and potentially another way to disenfranchise voters. As a cell phone only user myself, it just gives me another reason to believe that polling should be banned, period, since it serves mainly to engineer opinions rather than reflect them.

  2. HillaryClinton2008 Says:

    The American Dream!

  3. SubVet Says:

    Statistics are great in that you can collect a huge amount of data that can support any outcome you desire.

  4. Ron Paul and the Cell-Phone Primary « TwoforTofu WebLog Says:

    [...] R-Texas, is the preferred candidate of 1 percent of GOP voters. Paul’s supporters, though, insist that the libertarian congressman’s poor numbers are a result of pollsters undercounting voters who use cell phones rather than land lines. Are [...]

  5. Lane Says:

    I have both Cell and Land Line. But I was never polled. I support Ron Paul, and refuse to believe the polss are correct. I also believe that Ron Paul will do alot better than the media or websites like this predict. Every one that I talk to about Ron Paul, who doesn’t know then, always email me after a few days and tell me that they will vote for him also. And that they didn’t realize how much in common the other candidates are identical. Except for Ron Paul.

  6. Rich Perron Says:

    Is there any way you guys could promote this money bomb for Ron Paul?

  7. Willis Pranger Says:

    Very nice article, just what I was looking for.|

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