Archive for the ‘Poll’ Category

The Paul-O-Meter

Tuesday, July 15th, 2008


Liberty Maven has been running an interesting series of analyzes on the presidential candidates to see how they rate compared to Ron Paul (Methodology here). While you can quibble with a point or two here or there, the overall trend suggested by the scores seems reasonable enough.

The tally (out of 99) is:

Barack Obama 17

John McCain 25

Chuck Baldwin 86

Bob Barr 88

Here are the reader-rated results

Can Bob Barr Beat Perot?

Tuesday, May 20th, 2008

That’s the premise of a memo (with included fund raising pitch) sent to me. The email was sent with the subject “Of Interest to Friends of Ron Paul.”

Is 19 percent in the general election really possible? A recent Rasmussen poll of a hypothetical 4-way race between Obama(42%), McCain (38%), Bob Barr (6%) and Ralph Nader (4%) suggests it may not be ias farfetched as it seems given the unique dynamics of this election season.

Here’s the memo in full:

Of Interest to Friends of Ron Paul
MEMORANDUM
FROM:
Russ Verney
Campaign Manager, Bob Barr ‘08
TO:
Friends and Associates
RE:
Political Assessment
DATE:
May 19, 2008

These days, politics seems to revolve around polling and predictions. I’m not convinced it’s the best use of anyone’s time — especially for someone like me who’s spent his whole life in full-time campaign activities — but consider this outline :

  • early October: 7% in national surveys
  • Mid October: wins televised Presidential debate
  • late October: 12% in national surveys
  • election day: captures 19% of national vote

That’s what happened in a previous election I was involved with: Ross Perot in 1992. That could have been the case with Ron Paul if he had opted to run on a third party ticket.

I believe former Congressman Bob Barr has the same potential. Maybe better. Don’t be mislead, however: I am no cheerleader by nature. But I do agree with our Senior Policy Advisor, Doug Bandow, in an e-mail I received from him yesterday:

“I’ve just read the early polling data and your election game plan — phenomenal. Congressman Barr is poised to have a huge impact on the public policy debates and political history. His will be no ordinary presidential campaign.”

That’s not going to happen without your involvement, but at this point I’m asking you to just to think about participating and to mull over the following … November 4th is light years away. In terms of laying the foundation for a dynamic and influencial campaign, the pieces for Barr 2008 are already in place. Consider …

America is swamped in Libertarian information:
  • Congressman Ron Paul’s new book is the number one best-seller in the nation according to the New York Times
  • Neal Boortz has 4,000,000 radio listeners daily
  • On TV, John Stossel broadcasts such opinions as: “I am a libertarian in that I believe in limited government and as much individual freedom as possible.”

Finally, you may not have heard this from many media pundits, but nearly 130,000 people — 16% of the Republican primary turnout in Pennsylvania — got out of their easy chairs and voted for Ron Paul and against John McCain … that was after John McCain had won the nomination.

Politically and ideologically, Bob Barr is plowing fertile ground.

It will take an articulate candidate and a powerful message to build the meaning of the Libertarian messages voters are receiving. We have both in the Barr 2008 campaign.

That’s why we need your participation: your investment of time, talent, and financial resources is vital as the campaign builds, from the ground floor, the alternative to politics-as-usual.

Will you take a moment to go to our website
and contribute $25, $50, $100 or even $500 today?

I’d also like you to consider a pledge of support so we may plot out our post-convention strategy. Consider making a $25 contribution today — and a further investment of $25 or $50 on June 1st. Your gift of $50 or even $100 right away, with a pledge of another $25, $50 or perhaps $250 on June 1st, will allow us to set some ambitious campaign plans in place now.

If you cannot donate today or tomorrow, please do make a pledge payable on June 1st. Our budget process is the first responsibility I have to deal with.

With just a few days before what I believe will be great news coming out of the Libertarian Party convention, please be sure to act on this memo today so we can further our momentum.

While you are at the website, look around (there are lots more news and information posted) and take time to volunteer. I’d like to count on your support of just one hour a week in June, two hours a week in July, three in August.

Will you help?

Please let me hear from you right away. Your investment in this campaign of $50, $25, $500, or $100 will really be of help right now. We will put the contributions into good use immediately, and if you can volunteer just an hour a week I assure you will be productively busy. Two more things …

Bob Schoen, in his book cited above, also stated, “I have a clear and unambiguous sense that the most important person in the 1996 election was Ross Perot, who in 1995 shaped and prefaced the outcome of the election the next year.” That’s regrdless of Perot earning some 9% of the vote in comparison to 19% in 1992.

There are more than 430 elected Libertarian Party officials in the U.S. How many more do you think a successful Bob Barr campaign will help elect? I am convinced Bob Barr can match or beat the Perot votes of ‘92 and ‘96. Please be generous with a contribution, a pledge of further support, and your time.

Our fitting legacy of success — yours and Bob’s — would be the impact of a vibrant, effective Libertarian Party. You can make that happen, my friend.
Paid for by Barr 2008 Presidential Committee.

(Links to the donate page that included tracking codes were stripped out.)

Ron Paul Supports the Freedom to Gamble

Monday, October 15th, 2007

last week I was in Reno, Nevada attending the “Conservative Leadership Conference” where Ron Paul finished first in the straw poll. Being in Reno reminded me of Ron Paul’s position in favor of ending the prohibition on internet gambling.

In this video clip, Ron Paul introduces Reason editor Radley Balko, who speaks in favor of ending the prohibition on online gambling:

Ron Paul, Cell Phones and Polling

Friday, June 22nd, 2007

In the Agora provides some evidence that traditional polling leaves out younger voters (who are likely Paul supporters):

This Pew Research Center survey is perhaps the most comprehensive to date in working to determine what impact this has on polling data. The Pew survey found that cell-phone-only Americans are disproportionately younger, less affluent, less likely to be married or to own their home, and more liberal on many political questions. Yet “the absence of this group from traditional telephone surveys has only a minimal impact on the results.”

Notably, the Pew survey was conducted over a year ago, and the percentage of those now cell-phone-only has nearly doubled in that time. Perhaps a new study using the same techniques would reveal a different conclusion. Either way, though, “minimal impact” is in fact significant in the context of primary polling, where even a couple percentage points can make or break a candidate’s future.

Although Rep. Ron Paul is essentially libertarian, many of his positions - opposition to the Iraq war, greater civil liberties, etc. - would traditionally be defined as “liberal” in the lexicon of some members of the press. And voters (particularly younger ones) who align with those positions would seem to be the very people Ron Paul counts among his most ardent supporters.

Ron Paul Up in NH

Friday, May 18th, 2007

The new Zogby poll has Ron Paul up again in New Hampshire (Home of the best license plate slogan around: “Live Free or Die”).

One item of note is that the poll was conducted on May 15th and 16th. That means that it doesn’t fully reflect the increased exposure that Ron Paul has gotten since the debate, which was held late on Tuesday the 15th.